"If it was intentional, it doesn't look like it was that well planned," said Scott Snyder, director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation. "I think it's going to be perceived as a successful defense of South Korea's claimed maritime territory."
The two sides have clashed on the water before, in 1999 and 2002. But unlike today, both of those incidents followed rising tensions.
"It's unfortunate that it comes at a time when North and South Korean relations were on an upswing, and this will probably set things back," says Charles K. Armstrong, a professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.
South Korean Navy, AFP / Getty Images
The South Korean Navy uses high-speed patrol boats armed with canons and machine guns to guard its border with the North.
A statement by the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said their navy broadcast warnings at the North Korean boat, then fired warning shots when the broadcasts were ignored. The North Korean vessel responded with direct fire. Two South Korean ships shot back, sending the North's boat back across the line, reportedly engulfed in flames.
"This is a regrettable incident in which the North directly aimed at the South," Rear Adm. Lee Ki-shik told reporters, according to Yonhap, a South Korean news organization.
But North Korea claims the exact opposite. According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, the South sent "a group of warships" across the border to attack a North Korean ship that was returning from patrol, Yonhap reports. In this version of the story, the North responded decisively, dealing a "retaliatory blow at the provokers."
North Korea has not said if any of its sailors were killed. South Korea says its ships took a light beating, but no casualties were reported.
"It's possible there was a premeditated aspect to this," said Armstrong. "The North Koreans like to show that they're a force to be reckoned with."
South Korean Prime Minister Chung Un-chan offered a third explanation, saying that the entire incident was an accident.
North Korea does not recognize the Northern Limit Line and has objected to it several times in the past. The disagreements hinge on territorial and political issues, but also on fishing rights in the Yellow Sea, an area abundant with crab.
But the North has never officially petitioned to have the border moved farther south, indicating to some that the government there doesn't have any real interest in the boundary.
Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, says the government uses the Northern Limit Line as a tripping wire to force concessions from the United States.
"As expectations build up, this kind of bad behavior actually advances North Korea," Lee says.
Tuesday's naval skirmish comes just ahead of planned talks between the United States and several Asian countries. President Obama will stop in Seoul next week during his weeklong trip to the region. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will also meet with Asian leaders this week at a conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Singapore.
Korea was divided by Allied leaders at the end of World War II, with the Soviets occupying the north and the United States the south. In 1950, the north invaded the south, leading to a civil war that ended in 1953, splitting Korea in two along the Demilitarized Zone. The Northern Limit Line was proposed later by the United Nations to extend the boundary into the sea and is not part of the 1953 Armistice Agreement.
