Pressure from conservatives who rallied around third-party challenger Doug Hoffman -- including such potential Republican presidential candidates as Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty -- forced Scozzafava to give up. Another possible 2012 contender, Newt Gingrich, took a pounding from the right for backing Scozzafava. Gingrich threw his support to Hoffman after her withdrawal but warned against letting conservative leaders "anoint people without regard to ... local choices."
Scozzafava was picked by Republican county leaders, but critics blasted her as the choice of inside-the-Beltway Republicans, not grassroots conservatives. The state assemblywoman who supports gay rights and abortion rights -- and who's married to a labor activist -- was branded a "radical leftist" by conservative bloggers such as Michelle Malkin.
GOP leaders hope Scozzafava's departure will clear the way for voters to unite behind Hoffman. Although she threw her support to Democrat Bill Owens, saying he'd be best for the district, her campaign manager jumped to the Hoffman camp.
Owens was looking to split his opposition to win the House seat for his party for the first time in more than a century. Now that it's a two-man race, surveys indicate the contest is still close. Hoffman said he needs Scozzafava's supporters to win. Polling guru Nate Silver called the race "utterly fascinating" and "nearly impossible to forecast."
The political calculus of this contest is so complex that an outcome which emboldens conservatives could also be good news for liberals. "Palin's exclusionary, storm-the-barricades brand of Republicanism" will hurt the party in the long run, Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence predicted.
A victory for the Tea Party movement in NY-23 will signal a new phase in "The Great Purge," according to Washington Monthly's Steve Benen. The New York Times' Frank Rich even raised the specter of Stalinism.
Rich noted it was President Obama's decision to appoint Rep. John McHugh as secretary of the Army that led to this special election. His Halloween column called it a "devilish political move" that has triggered a bloody civil war within the GOP.
Given all the hand-wringing in New York, the candidates in Tuesday's other special election to fill an open House seat probably don't mind being overlooked. In California's 10th Congressional District, Democrat John Garamendi is facing Republican David Harmer -- and nobody is worried about how the outcome will affect either party.
Check out what Politics Daily's Matt Lewis and other bloggers have to say about the New York race:
