TOKYO -- Amidst the turmoil of health care reform and Afghanistan policy, President Barack Obama might have expected some calming certainties when he flies on Friday to Japan, long the staunchest of U.S. allies. But behind what is sure to be a cordial welcome in Tokyo, new and unfamiliar questions await the president.
More than two months after historic elections swept Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan into power, Japan still hasn't decided on the fate of a security alliance with the U.S. that has been in place for half a century. The country's new government has raised alarms in Washington by vowing to re-examine agreements authorizing U.S. troops and a helicopter base in Okinawa. Under Hatoyama, says one senior analyst, the relationship with the U.S. has become "an identity issue for Japan."
After its landslide victory Aug. 30, Hatoyama's DPJ quickly moved to challenge core tenets of the U.S.-Japan partnership. As a result, the party is reaping criticism from both the left and right wings of the Japanese parliament. In the weeks leading up to Obama's visit, Hatoyama and some of his cabinet members have made conflicting statements about whether the government will reopen terms of a three-year-old agreement to relocate an American air base in Okinawa.
In a visit last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned that it would be "immensely complicated and counterproductive" if Japan reneged on the air base deal, part of a larger troop realignment plan. In the wake of that warning, Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada suggested it might be possible to stick to the original agreement.
But in later remarks to parliament, Hatoyama insisted that he intends to undertake a "comprehensive review" of the security alliance and added that Kitazawa and Okada have begun to "seriously examine other possibilities" for the air base relocation. He has said that no decision will be made before Obama arrives in Tokyo for his two-day visit.
The incoherence within the Japanese government has led analysts to express concern that the DPJ, which broke 50 years of virtually uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party, has failed to lay out a detailed, comprehensive vision for how it intends to manage the country's self-defense without fully cooperating with the United States.
"Even if you want to transform the relationship between the U.S. and Japan, what is lacking is what Japan will do to lead the transformation," said Go Ito, a political science professor at Meiji University. "The DPJ has not provided specific plans for its security agenda."
The DPJ rose to power on the strength of populist pledges to end government cronyism, stimulate the economy through cash handouts for parents and clean up the environment. Upon taking office, the Hatoyama administration quickly announced it would end Japan's support for Indian Ocean refueling missions of ships engaged in U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan, which are unpopular among the Japanese.
In place of that direct support of the military mission in Afghanistan, the Hatoyama government has pledged $5 billion in reconstruction aid for Afghanistan over five years, four times the amount Japan has given since 2002.
Still, the Obama administration remains unhappy about Hatoyama's decision to re-examine the 2006 agreement to realign U.S. troops in Okinawa and relocate the Marine Corps' Futenma helicopter base. Under the deal negotiated with the previous government, about 8,000 troops would be moved to Guam, while a new air station would be built elsewhere in the Okinawa prefecture.
Left-wing critics of the plan, who want the air station to be moved to another part of Japan or out of the country entirely, have urged Hatoyama to remain firm with the United States, while the LDP criticized the prime minister for putting the alliance at risk.
Bolstering the impression of a break with Washington, Hatoyama has also talked of creating a more sophisticated economic partnership among East Asian countries, with China at the core and no clear role for the United States.
"The DPJ has come in and is treating the relationship with the U.S. as an identity issue for Japan," said Toshihiro Nakayama, senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a think tank. "If you go into this 'who we are' question, you would have to question why the U.S. military is here and all those issues. It's a structural shift in the way we think about the Japan-U.S. alliance."
In an attempt to smooth things over, Foreign Minister Okada met this week with U.S. Ambassador John Roos. And in a pre-trip interview with NHK, Japan's public broadcaster, Obama said, "I'm confident that once that review is complete that they will conclude that the alliance that we have, the basing arrangements that have been discussed, all those things serve the interests of Japan."
Still, other analysts believe the DPJ's moves are based more in internal politics than a serious bid to reframe the U.S.-Japan alliance. In this line of thinking, Hatoyama wants to win political points with voters by talking tough to the United States with an eye on sweeping the Upper House elections next summer. If that happens, the DPJ can more easily shed the influence of the Social Democrats, who have pressured Hatoyama to take the hard-line foreign policy stance.
"The reframing is less significant than many think," said Robert Dujarric, director of Japanese studies at Temple University's Japan Campus. "Hatoyama wants to show he's different from the LDP, satisfy some constituencies and see if some community-building can be done with China. But the DPJ accepts the key role of the Japan-U.S. alliance in defending Japan."
The discord comes even though Obama is popular among the Japanese public, especially thanks to his call for the elimination of nuclear weapons. Japanese hailed Obama's announcement this week that on a subsequent visit, he wants to be the first U.S. president to visit Hiroshima, the site of the world's first atomic bombing.
During a recent meeting with a small group of foreign reporters, including Sphere, DPJ deputy minister Teruhiko Mashiko said, "Our relationship with the U.S. is the most important at the very core, and that will not change." The test of that conviction may come only once Obama's visit is over.
More than two months after historic elections swept Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan into power, Japan still hasn't decided on the fate of a security alliance with the U.S. that has been in place for half a century. The country's new government has raised alarms in Washington by vowing to re-examine agreements authorizing U.S. troops and a helicopter base in Okinawa. Under Hatoyama, says one senior analyst, the relationship with the U.S. has become "an identity issue for Japan."
After its landslide victory Aug. 30, Hatoyama's DPJ quickly moved to challenge core tenets of the U.S.-Japan partnership. As a result, the party is reaping criticism from both the left and right wings of the Japanese parliament. In the weeks leading up to Obama's visit, Hatoyama and some of his cabinet members have made conflicting statements about whether the government will reopen terms of a three-year-old agreement to relocate an American air base in Okinawa.
Kazuhiro Nogi, AFP / Getty Images
U.S. military helicopters flying in Okinawa near the Futenma Air Base, which has become a bone of contention in America's changing relations with Japan.
But in later remarks to parliament, Hatoyama insisted that he intends to undertake a "comprehensive review" of the security alliance and added that Kitazawa and Okada have begun to "seriously examine other possibilities" for the air base relocation. He has said that no decision will be made before Obama arrives in Tokyo for his two-day visit.
The incoherence within the Japanese government has led analysts to express concern that the DPJ, which broke 50 years of virtually uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party, has failed to lay out a detailed, comprehensive vision for how it intends to manage the country's self-defense without fully cooperating with the United States.
"Even if you want to transform the relationship between the U.S. and Japan, what is lacking is what Japan will do to lead the transformation," said Go Ito, a political science professor at Meiji University. "The DPJ has not provided specific plans for its security agenda."
The DPJ rose to power on the strength of populist pledges to end government cronyism, stimulate the economy through cash handouts for parents and clean up the environment. Upon taking office, the Hatoyama administration quickly announced it would end Japan's support for Indian Ocean refueling missions of ships engaged in U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan, which are unpopular among the Japanese.
In place of that direct support of the military mission in Afghanistan, the Hatoyama government has pledged $5 billion in reconstruction aid for Afghanistan over five years, four times the amount Japan has given since 2002.
Still, the Obama administration remains unhappy about Hatoyama's decision to re-examine the 2006 agreement to realign U.S. troops in Okinawa and relocate the Marine Corps' Futenma helicopter base. Under the deal negotiated with the previous government, about 8,000 troops would be moved to Guam, while a new air station would be built elsewhere in the Okinawa prefecture.
Left-wing critics of the plan, who want the air station to be moved to another part of Japan or out of the country entirely, have urged Hatoyama to remain firm with the United States, while the LDP criticized the prime minister for putting the alliance at risk.
Bolstering the impression of a break with Washington, Hatoyama has also talked of creating a more sophisticated economic partnership among East Asian countries, with China at the core and no clear role for the United States.
"The DPJ has come in and is treating the relationship with the U.S. as an identity issue for Japan," said Toshihiro Nakayama, senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs, a think tank. "If you go into this 'who we are' question, you would have to question why the U.S. military is here and all those issues. It's a structural shift in the way we think about the Japan-U.S. alliance."
In an attempt to smooth things over, Foreign Minister Okada met this week with U.S. Ambassador John Roos. And in a pre-trip interview with NHK, Japan's public broadcaster, Obama said, "I'm confident that once that review is complete that they will conclude that the alliance that we have, the basing arrangements that have been discussed, all those things serve the interests of Japan."
Still, other analysts believe the DPJ's moves are based more in internal politics than a serious bid to reframe the U.S.-Japan alliance. In this line of thinking, Hatoyama wants to win political points with voters by talking tough to the United States with an eye on sweeping the Upper House elections next summer. If that happens, the DPJ can more easily shed the influence of the Social Democrats, who have pressured Hatoyama to take the hard-line foreign policy stance.
"The reframing is less significant than many think," said Robert Dujarric, director of Japanese studies at Temple University's Japan Campus. "Hatoyama wants to show he's different from the LDP, satisfy some constituencies and see if some community-building can be done with China. But the DPJ accepts the key role of the Japan-U.S. alliance in defending Japan."
The discord comes even though Obama is popular among the Japanese public, especially thanks to his call for the elimination of nuclear weapons. Japanese hailed Obama's announcement this week that on a subsequent visit, he wants to be the first U.S. president to visit Hiroshima, the site of the world's first atomic bombing.
During a recent meeting with a small group of foreign reporters, including Sphere, DPJ deputy minister Teruhiko Mashiko said, "Our relationship with the U.S. is the most important at the very core, and that will not change." The test of that conviction may come only once Obama's visit is over.
