Census Bureau Tries to Win Over Skeptics

WASHINGTON (Jan. 4) -- The U.S. government thinks you count and is willing to spend an awful lot of money to convince skeptics.

The Census Bureau today kicked off its 2010 Portrait of America Road Tour as part of a $340 million publicity blitz to increase awareness and allay suspicions about the once-in-a-decade population count.

The unprecedented push was launched in New York City's Times Square, where a 46-foot trailer began a four-month, nationwide journey to extol the positive benefits of filling out the 10-question census form. A dozen other regional vans also will fan out to spread the word that it pays to be counted.

The bureau plans stops at some of the biggest sporting events in the country – the Super Bowl (where the agency will spend $2.5 million for two TV ads during the pregame show) the NCAA Final Four and the Daytona 500 – as well as local parades and festivals. GPS will track the road show's location on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter.

Although the use of social media is the newest twist, "this is a deeply constitutional matter. We've done this every 10 years since 1790. This was clearly the intent of the founding fathers," Census Bureau Director Robert Groves told Sphere in an interview. "Taxpayer money goes back to where the people are, and where the people are is determined by the census."

The History
Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution calls for an "enumeration" every 10 years to be used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives. The census numbers are also used to draw state and local district lines and to allocate federal funds. In 2009, according to the Government Accountability Office, at least $478 billion was distributed on the basis of census data.

The Census Bureau's 2010 Web site explains how the decennial counting works. Yet despite its importance, the population count is widely misunderstood and, among immigrants from authoritarian countries or those who are undocumented, feared.

Legally, the Census Bureau cannot share responses with anyone, including law enforcement and immigration agencies. "If the president wanted to see your census form, I can tell him 'no' and I would be supported by the law," Groves said.

The first census in 1790 did not include Native Americans and counted African-American slaves as three-fifths of a person. Today, minorities are a central focus of census outreach.

William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, said in an interview that affluent whites who own second homes or have children living in college dorms have been overrepresented in past surveys. Minorities, especially those in low-income areas and who have limited education or don't speak English, have historically been undercounted.

The census will aim nearly a quarter of its advertising budget, or $80 million, toward Hispanics, blacks, Asians, Native Americans and other ethnic minorities. Ads will run in 28 languages. Forms have been printed in Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Russian and Vietnamese. Guides will come in 59 languages, and specialists will be able to translate the form in more than 120 tongues.

First Stop: Alaska
One of those languages is Inuit and should come in handy when the Inupiat residents of Noorvik, Alaska, become the first Americans counted on Jan. 25. Groves will personally deliver the first forms in western Alaska as part of an early enumeration in remote villages that usually empty out for hunting season in the spring just as the official count gets under way.

Most Americans will get their forms in the mail in mid-March, or what Groves calls his own "March Madness." Census Day is April 1. From late April through July, census workers will knock on doors at residences where people have not responded to take their information in person. The final tally is due Dec. 31, with redistricting data delivered to states in March 2011.

The census has opened 500 offices and is working with thousands of community, church and minority groups in hopes of bettering the 2000 mail response rate of 67 percent.

Yet at many of the 134 million addresses on the mailing list there will be no one home. The economic crisis has dislocated millions of Americans through foreclosure and job losses. In New Orleans, devastated and depopulated by Hurricane Katrina, census forms will be hand-delivered to better the odds that displaced residents still in the area will be counted.

Most of those delivering the forms and following up later will be temporary workers who have lost full-time jobs in the recession. Groves noted that the pool for census workers is "unprecedentedly rich," with more educated applicants vying for as many of 1.4 million temporary positions.

The Controversies
Although the Census Bureau is touting the short form as "10 questions in 10 minutes," anything dealing with money and politics is bound to be controversial, and the population count is no exception.

Some Hispanic groups have called for a boycott to protest the administration's slowness to enact immigration reform even as others invoked Jesus to convince Latinos to take part and get their fair share of federal dollars. Meanwhile, a proposal by Republican David Vitter of Louisiana to ask about citizenship – a question that likely would have dissuaded many here illegally from responding – was voted down by the Senate.

Black leaders, noting that 1.2 million African-Americans are in prison, have urged that prisoners be counted in their home communities instead of where they are incarcerated.

For the first time in history, the number of same-sex couples who say they are married – whether their state has legal gay marriage or not – will be tallied and released. The decision to include gay couples reverses a Bush administration policy and could be used as a political cudgel by both sides in the debate over federal recognition of same-sex relationships.

Perhaps most contentious will be the state-by-state breakdowns. When the census last week estimated the total U.S. population at 308.4 million and broke the numbers down by states, it gave a good predictor of the winners and losers in the Congress. Assuming no major surprises in the actual count, Texas could gain four seats in Congress. Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Washington state, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina would each gain one more representative. Ohio would be the biggest loser, shrinking by two seats. Eight Northeast and Midwest states would each lose a seat, as would Louisiana.

If past census counts are any indicator, the final word on the 2010 census won't come when the counting is over. Whether over the arcane issue of statistical sampling or the perennial problem of race and redistricting, census results have historically led to the U.S. Supreme Court and, despite the Census Bureau's best efforts, may wind up there again.

"There will be a lot of visibility for the census and they're doing a very good advertising campaign," said Frey. But "it is virtually impossible to have 100 percent accuracy on a survey of this magnitude."