Tea Party Is in a Leadership Conundrum

ANALYSIS

(Jan. 6) -- In his latest New York Times column, conservative pundit David Brooks makes the case that the new decade will be "The Tea Party Teens," as that movement's radical-populist "brigades" now claim "all the intensity" that President Barack Obama's supporters displayed in propelling him to the White House.

Brooks cites a recent poll showing that independent voters approve of the Tea Party movement more than both major parties and says that what's holding it back from becoming an even bigger force is its "amateurish" operations and lack of a true leader. Underscoring his latter point was the appearance, on the same day of his column, of a much-blogged-about Washington Independent scoop showing photographic evidence of TeaParty.org founder Dale Robertson holding a sign saying: "Congress = Slaveowner, Taxpayer = Niggar."

For now, in the absence of a clear, single standard bearer, the Tea Party movement remains aligned, if tenuously, with several figures in the Republican Party. "It's a very interesting dance right now watching the courtship between the movement and GOP candidates and officeholders," former George W. Bush adviser Mark McKinnon writes in The Daily Beast.

Largely overlooked, however, is the fact that all the potential Tea Party leaders bandied about bring with them significant political liabilities. And should the Tea Party pursue the other route to greater clout -- remaining independent and mounting a third-party bid for the presidency -- history won't be on its side. Taken together, those limitations point to a conclusion that punctures the hype: It could well be that the Tea Party has gotten as big as it can, and will remain simply a (lively) sideshow on the national stage.

Already, a few former Tea Party darlings have all but disqualified themselves from higher office. After his adultery scandal, it's unlikely South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, previously best known for refusing Washington's stimulus money, will run again for anything. And while Texas Gov. Rick Perry played to the crowd when he alluded to possible Texan secession at a Tea Party rally, that's likely to sink him with mainstream voters.

Today, according to McKinnon, the main Tea Party darling is Sarah Palin, but many conservatives believe the media-shy former Alaskan governor can't survive the scrutiny and criticism that would accompany a presidential run. Brooks himself, who makes it plain that he's no fan of the Tea Party, has called Palin "a joke" and "a fatal cancer to the Republican Party."

Brooks points to two alternative candidates for Tea Party leadership: Florida's Marco Rubio and New Mexico's Gary Johnson. But they have handicaps of their own. Rubio, former speaker of the Florida House and a 2010 Senate candidate, is Catholic, and the Republican Party traditionally has embraced evangelical forces that are often hostile to Catholicism. Johnson, who was governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003, is a successful businessman and Iron Man triathlete. Much has been made of his libertarian beliefs, which include advocating marijuana legalization. But libertarianism, while popular among Tea Party activists, is less so with established Republican Party forces. Texas Rep. Ron Paul's 2008 presidential primary bid, it should be remembered, generated a lot of online buzz, but not very many votes.

Unless a more broadly palatable Republican emerges who can somehow charm the Tea Partiers without alienating other voting blocs, the movement's next best bet for asserting itself is a third-party insurgency. But that would be a bet with very long odds. Third parties don't win elections; they play spoiler. And is that what Tea Partiers really want: four more years of Obama?

There's no denying the energy of the Tea Party movement. "Roe v. Wade got the religious right in this country on the offense, but until recently conservatives have been more passive," Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, recently told me. But for now, it's an offense without a quarterback, and a deceptively limited playbook.